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'03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by SolarPower00 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 1:33 pm

I think that's accurate

However, I believe a bad seeding can prevent a team from qualifying in the first weekend.

 example:  a #7 or 8 seed has much easier row to hoe in weekend one ....than #13 or 14.

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by outonthelimb on Tue Jun 25, 2013 1:51 pm

SolarPower00 wrote:I think that's accurate
However, I believe a bad seeding can prevent a team from qualifying in the first weekend.
Yes but if you are a deserving and good enough team then you should have an even easier time the second weekend even if you get a crap seed for week #1.

Now don't get me wrong...I would love for my DD's team to qualify the first weekend.  It's too damn hot to begin with and I'd rather not have to be out there a second week hiding from the sun.  But I can also make a sound(or flawed) case for wanting to qualify the second weekend vs the 1st weekend if you aren't going to be in contention for the grand championship the first year anyway.
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by bigtex75081 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:24 pm

There are 89 teams on this list.  89!!!!  How many of them are actually real? 

We'll say there is a demand, on average, for 15 players on each roster.  Some teams will have 16, others may have 14, but we'll use 15 because it's a round number.  So...

89 teams * 15 players/team = 1,335 players

Is 1,335 a realistic number?  My first reaction is that it isn't.  Are there enough '03 girls in the metroplex to field that many teams?  How many of these girls are being double-counted?

So with that thought, how many of these 89 teams will actually make?  70?  75?  80?  85?
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by 007shaken on Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:31 pm

Don't know how many of these teams will actually make. But I can tell you there is no way on earth there are over 1300 "select" players in DFW in this age group. cheers
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by outonthelimb on Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:38 pm

007shaken wrote:Don't know how many of these teams will actually make.  But I can tell you there is no way on earth there are over 1300 "select" players in DFW in this age group.  cheers
There may be 1300 families willing to pay for the right to say they are select.   How did our system get so broken in this regard?
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by bwgophers on Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:41 pm

bigtex75081 wrote:There are 89 teams on this list.  89!!!!  How many of them are actually real? 

We'll say there is a demand, on average, for 15 players on each roster.  Some teams will have 16, others may have 14, but we'll use 15 because it's a round number.  So...

89 teams * 15 players/team = 1,335 players

Is 1,335 a realistic number?  My first reaction is that it isn't.  Are there enough '03 girls in the metroplex to field that many teams?  How many of these girls are being double-counted?

So with that thought, how many of these 89 teams will actually make?  70?  75?  80?  85?

This past year there were 77 '00 teams, 87 '01 teams, and 74 '02 teams playing LHGCL, PPL, & APL competitive girls' leagues.

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by DrB on Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:52 pm

outonthelimb wrote:There may be 1300 families willing to pay for the right to say they are select.   How did our system get so broken in this regard?

Should people be paying $3k a year to get poor coaching and not develop?   Probably not
Will there by 90 teams in the QT?   Highly doubtful
Will there be 90 teams in various leagues?  Maybe so
Do some people like to look at other girls and say "your DD is sooooo NOT select"?   Probably so

But more people playing soccer and prioritizing soccer seems like a good thing.  Even if its at varying levels of "Select".   I kind of doubt that the overall weeding out process should be extremely rigorous at Age 10.

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by bigtex75081 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:56 pm

bwgophers wrote:
bigtex75081 wrote:There are 89 teams on this list.  89!!!!  How many of them are actually real? 

We'll say there is a demand, on average, for 15 players on each roster.  Some teams will have 16, others may have 14, but we'll use 15 because it's a round number.  So...

89 teams * 15 players/team = 1,335 players

Is 1,335 a realistic number?  My first reaction is that it isn't.  Are there enough '03 girls in the metroplex to field that many teams?  How many of these girls are being double-counted?

So with that thought, how many of these 89 teams will actually make?  70?  75?  80?  85?

This past year there were 77 '00 teams, 87 '01 teams, and 74 '02 teams playing LHGCL, PPL, & APL competitive girls' leagues.
Do you know how many '02 there were at this same time last year? Was it something close to 80?

You have better stats than the rest of us. So if you were FORCED to make an estimate, how many teams would you expect to see actually make? Do about 5% of teams fail to make each year? (Or 1 out of every 20.) Is that a fair guess?
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by bwgophers on Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:16 pm

bigtex75081 wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
bigtex75081 wrote:There are 89 teams on this list.  89!!!!  How many of them are actually real? 

We'll say there is a demand, on average, for 15 players on each roster.  Some teams will have 16, others may have 14, but we'll use 15 because it's a round number.  So...

89 teams * 15 players/team = 1,335 players

Is 1,335 a realistic number?  My first reaction is that it isn't.  Are there enough '03 girls in the metroplex to field that many teams?  How many of these girls are being double-counted?

So with that thought, how many of these 89 teams will actually make?  70?  75?  80?  85?

This past year there were 77 '00 teams, 87 '01 teams, and 74 '02 teams playing LHGCL, PPL, & APL competitive girls' leagues.
Do you know how many '02 there were at this same time last year?  Was it something close to 80?

You have better stats than the rest of us.  So if you were FORCED to make an estimate, how many teams would you expect to see actually make?  Do about 5% of teams fail to make each year?  (Or 1 out of every 20.)  Is that a fair guess?

Heading into signing day last year, I was tracking 79 '02 teams in FBR. I'm not going to go through and cross-reference all of those teams to see how many from FBR made it into all 3 leagues. My guess is that the "fail" rate is closer to 10%, and there will also be some teams in PPL/APL that aren't on anyone's radar screen today.

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by intrinsic on Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:31 pm

outonthelimb wrote:
007shaken wrote:Don't know how many of these teams will actually make.  But I can tell you there is no way on earth there are over 1300 "select" players in DFW in this age group.  cheers
There may be 1300 families willing to pay for the right to say they are select.   How did our system get so broken in this regard?
The Metroplex population has grown by 20% from '00 to '10. The three select leagues have teams from Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Waco, Amarillo, Midland, and other places. Our MSA is the 4th largest in the country. So part of the increase in participation can be attributed to population growth.

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by bigtex75081 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:52 pm

bwgophers wrote:
bigtex75081 wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
bigtex75081 wrote:There are 89 teams on this list.  89!!!!  How many of them are actually real? 

We'll say there is a demand, on average, for 15 players on each roster.  Some teams will have 16, others may have 14, but we'll use 15 because it's a round number.  So...

89 teams * 15 players/team = 1,335 players

Is 1,335 a realistic number?  My first reaction is that it isn't.  Are there enough '03 girls in the metroplex to field that many teams?  How many of these girls are being double-counted?

So with that thought, how many of these 89 teams will actually make?  70?  75?  80?  85?

This past year there were 77 '00 teams, 87 '01 teams, and 74 '02 teams playing LHGCL, PPL, & APL competitive girls' leagues.
Do you know how many '02 there were at this same time last year?  Was it something close to 80?

You have better stats than the rest of us.  So if you were FORCED to make an estimate, how many teams would you expect to see actually make?  Do about 5% of teams fail to make each year?  (Or 1 out of every 20.)  Is that a fair guess?

Heading into signing day last year, I was tracking 79 '02 teams in FBR.  I'm not going to go through and cross-reference all of those teams to see how many from FBR made it into all 3 leagues.  My guess is that the "fail" rate is closer to 10%, and there will also be some teams in PPL/APL that aren't on anyone's radar screen today.
10% is a big number but probably a pretty solid estimate. For those of you listening at home though, that's 1 out of every 10 teams. That's an eye opener.

So if you've been sitting there watching your '03 practice with 10 other girls and thinking, "I really hope this team makes." well it's about time to check out all your other options.
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by Guest on Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:31 pm

Thanks for all your hard work over the years on this system, bw!

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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by hombre on Sun Jun 30, 2013 8:49 am

intrinsic wrote:
outonthelimb wrote:
007shaken wrote:Don't know how many of these teams will actually make.  But I can tell you there is no way on earth there are over 1300 "select" players in DFW in this age group.  cheers
There may be 1300 families willing to pay for the right to say they are select.   How did our system get so broken in this regard?
The Metroplex population has grown by 20% from '00 to '10. The three select leagues have teams from Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Waco, Amarillo, Midland, and other places. Our MSA is the 4th largest in the country. So part of the increase in participation can be attributed to population growth.

Plus soccer continues to gain momentum in the USA overall. With DFW now the 4th largest metro, I'm actually surprised that we have not passed 100 on select teams playing. We will soon. It ain't like the clubs and coaches don't want the business and plenty o parents want their kid to play at least high school soccer. Why would it stay flat with 00, 01, 02?
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Re: '03 Girls FBR Rankings - 06-25-13

Post by bigtex75081 on Sun Jun 30, 2013 10:51 am

hombre wrote:
intrinsic wrote:
outonthelimb wrote:
007shaken wrote:Don't know how many of these teams will actually make.  But I can tell you there is no way on earth there are over 1300 "select" players in DFW in this age group.  cheers
There may be 1300 families willing to pay for the right to say they are select.   How did our system get so broken in this regard?
The Metroplex population has grown by 20% from '00 to '10. The three select leagues have teams from Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Waco, Amarillo, Midland, and other places. Our MSA is the 4th largest in the country. So part of the increase in participation can be attributed to population growth.

Plus soccer continues to gain momentum in the USA overall. With DFW now the 4th largest metro, I'm actually surprised that we have not passed 100 on select teams playing. We will soon. It ain't like the clubs and coaches don't want the business and plenty o parents want their kid to play at least high school soccer. Why would it stay flat with 00, 01, 02?
How much further can the market really expand? Another 5%?  We already see a lot of complaints on this board about how "Select" isn't really "select" anymore.

The Select market reached a ceiling and, after some convincing arguments by the clubs, the Academy structure was created.  If it wasn’t for Academy, a lot of these clubs would have struggled to stay afloat over the last few years.  The Academy programs are growing a lot faster than the Select programs.  That’s because there are A LOT more kids that play soccer at the Academy age than they do at the Select ages.

As the kids get older, there are fewer teams because there are fewer players to fill those rosters.  That is a consistent trend that we’ve always seen.  According to a presentation I recently heard, soccer participation reaches its peak at age 7.  So increasing age has an inverse relationship to participants.

The clubs have been fortunate up until now to have a growth rate that outperforms the population growth rate here in DFW.  But a lot of that, over the last 5 years at least, has been because of the introduction of Academy.

Once Academy hits its saturation point, where will the new growth come from?  Or will we see new things?  (Less efficient providers fall out of the market?  Price wars?  New services offered?  Better differentiators?)
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