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'03 Final FBR vs. Today

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'03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by bwgophers on Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:21 pm

I've done this little exercise for the '01's and '02's, and here it is for the '03's...

Here is a comparison of the final '03 pre-QT FBR rankings that I published on 7-21-13, the week before U11 QT for the '03's, to the current LHGCL U12 standings.  Since the final FBR was published, the '03's have had the U11 QT, a full U11 season of LHGCL, a summer of player/team movement, another QT, and a fall U12 season where each team has played every other team in their division once.

I always find it interesting to see how much things have changed.  Relative to the '01's and '02's, the '03's have had a larger number of teams that are currently significantly higher or lower in the LHGCL standings than their pre-QT FBR.  However, even with that, 2/3 of the teams in LHGCL are currently within 5 places of their Pre-QT FBR ranking.

**Note that I have 31 teams in the current LHGCL standings, due to Solar Red's move up to U13 D2 this year.


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Re: '03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by SD69 on Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:46 pm

Most of the large discrepancies are with the independent teams. I wonder why this is? Did you publish these at the end of the spring season last year?
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Re: '03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by bwgophers on Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:18 pm

SD69 wrote:Most of the large discrepancies are with the independent teams. I wonder why this is? Did you publish these at the end of the spring season last year?

I only ever published this lookback after the fall season of U12 has been completed. U11 is still impacted by some of the vagaries of the QT seeding and qualification process, whereas playing a full season of U11 + having to go through another round of QT and then another half-season tends to allow the law of averages to kick in somewhat. For example, take a look at where teams like Sting Flanagan, Sting Sanchez, Sparta, and Warriors are today vs. where FBR predicted where they would be at U11 vs. where they were a year ago.

I don't have an explanation for why the larger discrepancies tend to be with the small club/independents for the '03's. As I stated in my original post, the '03's have had more teams with significant changes from the final FBR than either the '01's or '02's did. Early indications from looking at the '04's so far through the fall season of U11 suggest that the '04's will probably end up more like the '01's and '02's, than the '03's. I don't have an explanation for why that is.

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Re: '03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by ArnoldZiffel on Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:00 pm

I suggest the depth of 03 talent is deeper so that able players are available to play for indies who were undervalued before QT?  Do you want DD waiting on the bench of a big name team, or starting for an indy with a decent group surrounding her, and with no risk of the club using CPP to take her minutes for a critical game?
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Re: '03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by jsullivan81 on Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:35 pm

4 posts.... before CPP was brought up.

It's not getting old, at all.

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Re: '03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by Barca on Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:04 am

I would have to argue that the law of averages may not necessarily be in play. Top teams shuffle out the bottom half of their rosters and attract dd's that make the choice to move up the divisions for better opportunities and vice versa. Players with less playing time move down a few slots to do what Arnold.. points out.

I would argue that FBR does a great job of prognosticating the inevitable and that is if your team is a top 10 team, then they will more than likely stay in that bracket due to the above stated attrition. The anomalies of Cosmos/Fever are the exception to the rule.

Word to the wise for future select parents... Pick your dd's team wisely and set a path of excellence from the beginning. FBR should be a good indicator of which team has it going in the right direction.
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Re: '03 Final FBR vs. Today

Post by Triumph FC on Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:02 am

SD69 wrote:Most of the large discrepancies are with the independent teams. I wonder why this is? Did you publish these at the end of the spring season last year?

I hadn't really read the whole thread until now but there are a few reasons why so here goes
Big clubs tend to pad out their "sister" teams rosters with their top players during academy. These go back to their top teams on signing day leaving their "sister" teams to find players for their rosters so they aren't as good as their FBR
At the smaller clubs we don't have a "revolving door" of players so developing what you have is very important and with that comes consistency within the team rather than new players having to learn what the coach wants

A lot changes on signing day so its very important you know what you are getting in too!
Good luck and enjoy watching
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