Be An Athletic Supporter!
Donate and get this nifty tag!

Latest topics
Competitive teams playing indoor vs rec teams, why??????Today at 9:53 ambrazos
Good luck at Premier SupercopaToday at 9:44 amsoccergodntx
Liverpool 05B Melia - Final SpotsToday at 9:44 amElopez
Solar 11g BarnesToday at 9:38 amSportsmanship
Solar 10g BarnesToday at 9:38 amSportsmanship
Solar 09g BarnesToday at 9:36 amSportsmanship
Sting 09 ShepardToday at 9:27 amskills
Looking for an Outside Defensive BackToday at 9:03 amSpence
Dallas Texans West 05G (Willie Molano) LHGCL D1Today at 8:29 amDallas Texans West
Liverpool 2010B Hunt looking for a keeper Today at 4:20 amLPBMGR
Solar East 09G WilliamsonToday at 12:13 ambjwaustin
Looking for a Team (07) & (09) Today at 12:12 amCoachBoyle
Frisco Fusion 03G , adding a few more playersToday at 12:12 amGWood
Solar East 12G WilliamsonToday at 12:00 ambjwaustin
U12 DA LandscapeToday at 12:00 amfactsmatter
SOLAR #13!!! Girls’ Select Academy Full KitYesterday at 11:45 pm13soccermama
08 Girls - Mans/Arl/GP/Burl/FTW - Looking for 2-3 More Yesterday at 11:40 pmNTXCelticFC-South Area
Dallas Texans 04G FTW looking to add playersYesterday at 11:24 pmSable
Liverpool 07G Callahan Looking for playersYesterday at 11:20 pmwhanez
Solar South 05B Martinez Classic D1 Open Practice SessionsYesterday at 10:52 pmGottalovesoccer
Solar 05B Classic D1 & Solar 05B ECNL Open Practice SessionsYesterday at 10:43 pmGottalovesoccer
FC Dallas 03G West (Keller, Colleyville, Roanoke)Yesterday at 10:22 pmHmeleven
FC Dallas 08g West Blue (Roanoke, Keller, Colleyville)Yesterday at 10:20 pmHmeleven
Inter United FC 07 Boys Yesterday at 10:19 pmInterUnitedFC
Thunder FCYesterday at 9:30 pmczechmate
Log in

I forgot my password

Statistics
We have 12333 registered users
The newest registered user is Soccerfam74

Our users have posted a total of 177081 messages in 23122 subjects

04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Go down

04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:01 pm

North Texas, Oklahoma and South Texas G04 Youth Soccer Rankings - September 19th, 2016
These are the North Texas, Oklahoma and South Texas Girls 2004 Birth Year rankings as calculated by Excel Solver using a best fit algorithm to match up team strength ratings with actual tournament and league play results.   Rankings for the teams that have a higher sample size are starting to get stable. Teams move up in the rankings by beating a team by more than predicted (by Solver) or losing by less than expected. Teams with smaller sample sizes of games can also move up or down based off of the strength of schedule of teams they have played in the past improving.

NTX, OK and STX Girls 2004 Soccer Rankings (as of September 19th, 2016)






This is the current list of sources for scores:
2016 King Tut presented by Toyota
LHGCL Qualifying Tournament
Texas Summer Classic
Dallas International Soccer Festival
2016 PreSeason Challenge
Premier Cup 2016
Beat the Heat (Edmond, OK)
36th Annual Bob Wiseman Memorial
Primetime Girls U14 2003 (11v11)
Junior Development League - LHJDL
LHGCL D1 League Play
LHGCL D2 League Play
Plano Premier Invitiational League Red - PPIL RED
Plano Premier Invitiational League White - PPIL WHITE
Arlington Premier Invitiational League D1 - APIL D1
Oklahoma Premier League Gold - OPL Gold
Oklahoma Premier League Silver - OPL Silver
Oklahoma Competitive League D1 - OCL D1
Oklahoma Competitive League D2 - OCL D2


Last edited by 04GRankings on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:27 pm; edited 2 times in total
avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by Disposessed on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:17 pm

I know these rankings are supposed to drum up posts, so I'll bite.
If head-to-head doesn't mean much then you'll have to explain your algorithm and why it is worth looking at the results.

Disposessed
TxSoccer Poster
TxSoccer Poster

Posts : 19
Points : 656
Join date : 2016-09-19

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:27 pm

This is based on results of head to head, and the teams those teams played head to head results, thus Teams move up in the rankings by beating a team by more than predicted (by Solver) or losing by less than expected. Teams with smaller sample sizes of games can also move up or down based off of the strength of schedule of teams they have played in the past improving.

Let me know if that helps explain how this works...  further...

Simple example if TSC Hurricanes 04 Griffin plays Oklahoma FC OFC 04 (OK) and TSC wins 2-0 for example, when rating predicted 3.35 - (-0.339) = (TSC Favored by ~3.69) that will cause TSC to drop and possibly OFC to rise, but probably not by as much because of the larger sample size for OFC.

Next if TSC Hurricanes 04 Griffin plays DT South 04 and Texans win 2-0 for example, when rating predicted 3.35 - 1.95 = (TSC Favored by 1.4) that would have an impact to the ratings as DT South would move up some and TSC would move down by more (due to the smaller sample size for TSC).

Anyway, the more games we have in the sample, the closer we will get mathematically to a stable predictor of results.  Currently we are at 429 games.

Hope that helps.
avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by TatonkaBurger on Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:58 pm

04GR, thanks again for doing these.  I do not care what anybody else says, it is fun to keep score.
avatar
TatonkaBurger
TxSoccer Addict
TxSoccer Addict

Posts : 1163
Points : 3207
Join date : 2012-12-03

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:17 pm

I got a little something I'm cooking up to post tonight hopefully. Based on current rankings was going to post the point differential according to the excel solver ratings! We will see how close it is after the weekend, or better yet if it creates some decent conversation?

avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:07 am

here you go... you will need to do some math but this tells you what Excel Solver thinks the score diff will be...

So for example the 1st on the list:
LP Barnes -5 vs Texas Spirit -9, thus LP Barnes is a 4 goal favorite
another example from bottom
FC Dallas 04 JDL Red +5 vs D'Feeters Pfeil -3, thus FC Dallas is a ~8 goal favorite
Enjoy the rest of your week and good luck to everyone this weekend!


avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by FC Storm on Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:34 am

How do you calculate the goal differential with FCD Blue and Solar Pulp since both are positive numbers?
avatar
FC Storm
TxSoccer Lurker
TxSoccer Lurker

Posts : 3
Points : 641
Join date : 2016-09-19

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:44 am

FC Storm wrote:How do you calculate the goal differential with FCD Blue and Solar Pulp since both are positive numbers?

2.39-2.69= -0.30 which effectively solver gives pulp a slight (0.30) edge but more than likely it will end in a tie as it is closer to zero.

Result of this one could have a decent impact on these two teams rating depending on the outcome.

Another game with significant potential to affect their teams rating is Blitz vs TSC Hurricanes griffin. Griffin is favored by several goals but outcome could be closer than solver predicts which would lower griffin's rating and drop their rank.

Btw I will wait until after that game to post this next weeks rankings.
avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by TatonkaBurger on Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:13 pm

So you brought the Vegas sportsbook to NTX 04 soccer.
avatar
TatonkaBurger
TxSoccer Addict
TxSoccer Addict

Posts : 1163
Points : 3207
Join date : 2012-12-03

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:27 pm

TatonkaBurger wrote:So you brought the Vegas sportsbook to NTX 04 soccer.

Yes. Come October I'm launching my sportsbook business for 04 girls soccer. Just wait for it
avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by FriscoSoccer2004 on Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:56 am

Thanks for doing this.  Definitely will come in handy for Tournament directors come November+ tournaments.
avatar
FriscoSoccer2004
TxSoccer Sponsor
TxSoccer Sponsor

Posts : 1716
Points : 4980
Join date : 2010-09-07
Location : Next to a Grill cooking something good

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:30 pm

Please send me JDL scores! Thx
avatar
CrazySoccerParent
TxSoccer Postmaster
TxSoccer Postmaster

Posts : 177
Points : 850
Join date : 2016-08-15

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by FC Storm on Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:24 pm

Dallas Texans - 1
Solar Arnold - 1
- Solar scores in the last minute for the tie

Solar Pulp - 6
FCD Blue - 0
avatar
FC Storm
TxSoccer Lurker
TxSoccer Lurker

Posts : 3
Points : 641
Join date : 2016-09-19

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by Guest on Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:16 pm

Dallas Texans South-2
Sting G-1

FCD JDL RED-6
D'Feeters-0

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by SD69 on Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:54 pm

When does FCD Red play Solar Red?
avatar
SD69
TxSoccer Addict
TxSoccer Addict

Posts : 1356
Points : 3489
Join date : 2012-11-05
Location : On the SW side, in soccer purgatory.

Back to top Go down

Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by Guest on Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:30 pm

10-23-16

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum