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04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

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04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 19/09/16, 07:01 pm

North Texas, Oklahoma and South Texas G04 Youth Soccer Rankings - September 19th, 2016
These are the North Texas, Oklahoma and South Texas Girls 2004 Birth Year rankings as calculated by Excel Solver using a best fit algorithm to match up team strength ratings with actual tournament and league play results.   Rankings for the teams that have a higher sample size are starting to get stable. Teams move up in the rankings by beating a team by more than predicted (by Solver) or losing by less than expected. Teams with smaller sample sizes of games can also move up or down based off of the strength of schedule of teams they have played in the past improving.

NTX, OK and STX Girls 2004 Soccer Rankings (as of September 19th, 2016)






This is the current list of sources for scores:
2016 King Tut presented by Toyota
LHGCL Qualifying Tournament
Texas Summer Classic
Dallas International Soccer Festival
2016 PreSeason Challenge
Premier Cup 2016
Beat the Heat (Edmond, OK)
36th Annual Bob Wiseman Memorial
Primetime Girls U14 2003 (11v11)
Junior Development League - LHJDL
LHGCL D1 League Play
LHGCL D2 League Play
Plano Premier Invitiational League Red - PPIL RED
Plano Premier Invitiational League White - PPIL WHITE
Arlington Premier Invitiational League D1 - APIL D1
Oklahoma Premier League Gold - OPL Gold
Oklahoma Premier League Silver - OPL Silver
Oklahoma Competitive League D1 - OCL D1
Oklahoma Competitive League D2 - OCL D2


Last edited by 04GRankings on 19/09/16, 09:27 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by Disposessed on 19/09/16, 09:17 pm

I know these rankings are supposed to drum up posts, so I'll bite.
If head-to-head doesn't mean much then you'll have to explain your algorithm and why it is worth looking at the results.

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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 19/09/16, 09:27 pm

This is based on results of head to head, and the teams those teams played head to head results, thus Teams move up in the rankings by beating a team by more than predicted (by Solver) or losing by less than expected. Teams with smaller sample sizes of games can also move up or down based off of the strength of schedule of teams they have played in the past improving.

Let me know if that helps explain how this works...  further...

Simple example if TSC Hurricanes 04 Griffin plays Oklahoma FC OFC 04 (OK) and TSC wins 2-0 for example, when rating predicted 3.35 - (-0.339) = (TSC Favored by ~3.69) that will cause TSC to drop and possibly OFC to rise, but probably not by as much because of the larger sample size for OFC.

Next if TSC Hurricanes 04 Griffin plays DT South 04 and Texans win 2-0 for example, when rating predicted 3.35 - 1.95 = (TSC Favored by 1.4) that would have an impact to the ratings as DT South would move up some and TSC would move down by more (due to the smaller sample size for TSC).

Anyway, the more games we have in the sample, the closer we will get mathematically to a stable predictor of results.  Currently we are at 429 games.

Hope that helps.
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by TatonkaBurger on 20/09/16, 03:58 pm

04GR, thanks again for doing these.  I do not care what anybody else says, it is fun to keep score.
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 20/09/16, 04:17 pm

I got a little something I'm cooking up to post tonight hopefully. Based on current rankings was going to post the point differential according to the excel solver ratings! We will see how close it is after the weekend, or better yet if it creates some decent conversation?

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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 22/09/16, 08:07 am

here you go... you will need to do some math but this tells you what Excel Solver thinks the score diff will be...

So for example the 1st on the list:
LP Barnes -5 vs Texas Spirit -9, thus LP Barnes is a 4 goal favorite
another example from bottom
FC Dallas 04 JDL Red +5 vs D'Feeters Pfeil -3, thus FC Dallas is a ~8 goal favorite
Enjoy the rest of your week and good luck to everyone this weekend!


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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by FC Storm on 22/09/16, 10:34 am

How do you calculate the goal differential with FCD Blue and Solar Pulp since both are positive numbers?
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 22/09/16, 10:44 am

FC Storm wrote:How do you calculate the goal differential with FCD Blue and Solar Pulp since both are positive numbers?

2.39-2.69= -0.30 which effectively solver gives pulp a slight (0.30) edge but more than likely it will end in a tie as it is closer to zero.

Result of this one could have a decent impact on these two teams rating depending on the outcome.

Another game with significant potential to affect their teams rating is Blitz vs TSC Hurricanes griffin. Griffin is favored by several goals but outcome could be closer than solver predicts which would lower griffin's rating and drop their rank.

Btw I will wait until after that game to post this next weeks rankings.
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by TatonkaBurger on 22/09/16, 02:13 pm

So you brought the Vegas sportsbook to NTX 04 soccer.
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 22/09/16, 07:27 pm

TatonkaBurger wrote:So you brought the Vegas sportsbook to NTX 04 soccer.

Yes. Come October I'm launching my sportsbook business for 04 girls soccer. Just wait for it
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by FriscoSoccer2004 on 23/09/16, 10:56 am

Thanks for doing this.  Definitely will come in handy for Tournament directors come November+ tournaments.
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by CrazySoccerParent on 24/09/16, 02:30 pm

Please send me JDL scores! Thx
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by FC Storm on 24/09/16, 04:24 pm

Dallas Texans - 1
Solar Arnold - 1
- Solar scores in the last minute for the tie

Solar Pulp - 6
FCD Blue - 0
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by JonSneauxTargaryen on 24/09/16, 05:16 pm

Dallas Texans South-2
Sting G-1

FCD JDL RED-6
D'Feeters-0

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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by SD69 on 24/09/16, 05:54 pm

When does FCD Red play Solar Red?
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Re: 04G North Texas, STX & OK Rankings - September 19th, 2016

Post by JonSneauxTargaryen on 24/09/16, 06:30 pm

10-23-16

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