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FBR 08G June 12th 2018

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FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by FBR08G on 11/6/2018, 1:56 pm

Current Rankings ONLY include game results from 2/2/2018 through Present Date.  The goal moving forward is to have a minimum of 4 to 6 months of data including both league play and tournaments.  Games recorded as W-L-T.  Only full sided outdoor games played in 08 divisions will count for rankings.  Results from playing in development leagues are not be considered.  ALL OTHER TEAMS WILL BE INCLUDED.

FBR08G is publishing these rankings and maintaining the data.  The criteria and formulas are all 100% the same as BWG's rankings in prior age groups.  Games from development leagues will not be included in the rankings.  Games won in extra time will be recorded as a win and not a tie.  

The goal of this FBR is to provide a data driven unbiased look at the teams as they relate to each other. Please keep in mind that this is a body of work that is published.  Because team A beat team B last week does not automatically mean team A is ranked higher than team B.  New games carry the same weight as old games.  

If your team is not included please pm me and let me know where they are playing. Minimum of 3 games against 08 teams to be included in the rankings. If your win/loss record does not look correct please refer to your got soccer account.  If scores are missing you can pm or email them to me.  These may not be updated yet.  Timely reporting of games scores to your respective leagues will provide the best data possible. If you notice a score entered incorrectly by the league please pm me. I rely on the leagues to report the games scores correctly.

If your team has changed clubs or coaches please pm me the updates so I can reflect this accurately.


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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by 1soccerdad on 11/6/2018, 7:01 pm

How do you come up with the ranking

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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by President Camacho on 12/6/2018, 2:00 pm

1soccerdad wrote:How do you come up with the ranking
I cut and paste this from when I found it last asked... Head will swim

This was previously provided by BWGophers, who relinquished his account some months back. However, as the story goes, he and some others are the ones who set up the FBR based on a software package called Football Rankulator (http://www.footballrankulator.com/). It's a software package based on the former algorithm used for BCS college football rankings (pulling data from multiple sources to calculate rankings). As you will see, the data is weighted and is what FBR has consistently used since its inception. At least, that's what we've been told here on the board. I have no connection to any FBR admins, that I'm aware of, but have found the background info. very useful for understanding the methodology.

Read at your own peril...

FBR uses 3 primary ranking criteria:

1) Weighted Wins*
2) Average Margin of Victory (MoV)
3) Strength of Schedule (SoS)

*Weighted Wins is split into 2 sub-categories – Average Weighted Wins/Game Played (AWW), and Most Weighted Wins (MWW).

AWW accounts for 40% of the final ranking calculation
MWW accounts for 10% of the final ranking calculation
MoV accounts for 20% of the final ranking calculation
SoS accounts for 30% of the final ranking calculation


Section I: Weighted Wins and Weighted Losses:

Weighted Wins (WW) and Weighted Losses (WL) are used in the AWW, MWW and SoS calculations, and are at the heart of how FBR works.

We establish ranking Tiers in the FBR that give greater weighting to games played against stronger opponents. Placement in the ranking tiers is based solely on actual game performance and is reviewed and adjusted where necessary on a frequent basis. The "general" rule governing tier placement is an "80/20" rule. A team should get a Win or Draw in >80% of their games against teams from a lower ranking tier, a Win or Draw in somewhere between 20-80% of their games against teams within their ranking tier, and a Win or Draw in <20% of their games against teams from a higher ranking tier. The net result is that you should get grouping of teams of relatively similar strength in each tier. A weighting factor is then assigned to each tier. From empirical experience with a full year's worth of data on the '01's at U10, we determined that reducing the weighting factor by 50% in each successive tier works the best overall.

Current weighting factors are:
Tier 1 = 52
Tier 2 = 26
Tier 3 = 13
Tier 4 = 7**
Tier 5 = 3**
Tier 6 = 1**
**(can only assign whole #'s)

A win gets a team (1*Tier weighting factor) Weighted Wins (i.e. 52 WW for a W over a Tier 1 team, 26 WW for a W over a Tier 2 team, etc.) and 0 weighted losses (WL)
A draw gets a team (0.5 * Tier weighting factor) WW and (0.5 * (100-Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 26-24 WW-WL for a Tier 1 draw, 13-37 WW-WL for a Tier 2 draw, etc.)
A loss gets a team 0 WW and (1*(100-(Tier weighting factor)) WL (i.e. 48 WL for a loss to a Tier 1 team, 74 WL for a loss to a Tier 2 team, etc.)

Section II: Average Weighted Wins per Game Played:

The first ranking criterion used is Avg WW. This is simply a team’s total WW (as calculated using the method described above) divided by the total # of games they have played. In other words, what is the average "strength" of their game results any time those girls lace up their cleats.

Section III: Most Weighted Wins

This is simply the total # of Weighted Wins for a team. It is used in the rankings to give credit to teams that step up and play tougher competition on a regular basis AND perform well in those games.

For example, if you have 2 teams that have played roughly equal strength competition, but Team A is 16-0 while Team B is 8-0, Team A should get more credit as they have actually played the games and delivered the results. Team B might go 8-0 over their next 8 games, but the actual probability of that happening is < 100 %.

Section IV: Average Margin of Victory:

Pure and simple... (Total Goals Scored - Total goals allowed)/Total # of Games

Section V: Strength of Schedule:

Uses WW-WL record of a team's opponents AND the opponent's opponents. Weighted 75% for opponent's cumulative WW-WL record, 25% for opponent's opponents cumulative WW-WL record. (You really need the FBR SW's database capability to keep track of all of this).

Section VI: Calculating Final Ranking Points:

The ranking criteria values are calculated for each team as described in sections II-V. For each criterion, the teams are listed and sorted from highest criteria total to lowest. The team with the highest total in a particular criterion is assigned 100 points. The ranking points for all other teams in that criteria are then calculated as a % of the top team’s total.

For example:

Team A has the highest total for Avg. WW = 50 WW/Game.
Team B has Avg. WW = 30 WW/Game

Team A gets 100 Ranking Points in the Avg WW category
Team B gets (30/50)*100 = 60 Ranking points in the Avg. WW category.

The ranking points for each criterion are then multiplied by the corresponding final ranking calculation weight for that criterion, and summed up to get a team's Total Ranking Points.

Again for example, let's say:

Team A = 100 points for Avg. WW, 100 points for Most WW, 90 points for MoV, 75 points for SoS
Team A Total Ranking Points = (100 * 0.4) + (100 * 0.1) + (90 * 0.2) + (75 * 0.3) = (40) + (10) + (18) + (22.5) = 90.5 points

Team B = 60 points for Avg. WW, 80 points for Most WW, 50 points for MoV, 100 points for SoS
Team B Total Ranking Points = (60 * 0.4) + (80 * 0.1) + (50 * 0.2) + (100 * 0.3) = (24) + (8 ) + (10) + (30) = 72 points

Teams are then sorted by total ranking points to determine final FBR ranking.
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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by President Camacho on 12/6/2018, 2:02 pm

It's all a mute point after qualifying, but here is another ranking site that people on here have shared.
https://youthsoccerrankings.us/rankings/TXN/10/Girls/
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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by FCD08GMOM on 12/6/2018, 11:23 pm

Thank you for the post explaining how the football rankulator works.

On the Tier table shared in the post 1 - 6, and the 110 teams in this ranking, can you give me a breakdown of what teams are in Tier 1, 2, etc using for example their ranking number? So for example are the teams in ranking from 1 thru 10 Tier 1?

I see each teams Points and their W-L-T numbers but they don't match the ones in the Tier table. There is no team in our ranking with 23 W, 0 L and 1 T. So how would the Tier weighting factors be used, since they don't match any W-L-T from teams in the ranking below?


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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by President Camacho on 13/6/2018, 2:56 pm

^^^ I believe it just takes the 110 teams and you divide by 6 to give you the amount of teams in each tier. So about 18-19 in each tier so it shows the tiers vs. other tiers in that grid. So it looks at the top 18 or 19 teams and how they did against the next tier teams on down.

Don't over think it. Close losses to a good tier 1 team helps more than beating a bad team, but you don't want a 0-9 loss to a good team either.
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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by ForReal on 13/6/2018, 3:58 pm

President Camacho wrote:^^^ I believe it just takes the 110 teams and you divide by 6 to give you the amount of teams in each tier. So about 18-19 in each tier so it shows the tiers vs. other tiers in that grid. So it looks at the top 18 or 19 teams and how they did against the next tier teams on down.

Don't over think it. Close losses to a good tier 1 team helps more than beating a bad team, but you don't want a 0-9 loss to a good team either.

^^^that's not at all how tiers are determined.

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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by President Camacho on 13/6/2018, 4:28 pm

ForReal wrote:
President Camacho wrote:^^^ I believe it just takes the 110 teams and you divide by 6 to give you the amount of teams in each tier. So about 18-19 in each tier so it shows the tiers vs. other tiers in that grid. So it looks at the top 18 or 19 teams and how they did against the next tier teams on down.

Don't over think it. Close losses to a good tier 1 team helps more than beating a bad team, but you don't want a 0-9 loss to a good team either.

^^^that's not at all how tiers are determined.
Was I close? Can you clarify please. I typed I believe because I wasn't positive. Not being snarky, just best guess based on what I've read.
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Re: FBR 08G June 12th 2018

Post by ForReal on 13/6/2018, 4:40 pm

President Camacho wrote:
ForReal wrote:
President Camacho wrote:^^^ I believe it just takes the 110 teams and you divide by 6 to give you the amount of teams in each tier. So about 18-19 in each tier so it shows the tiers vs. other tiers in that grid. So it looks at the top 18 or 19 teams and how they did against the next tier teams on down.

Don't over think it. Close losses to a good tier 1 team helps more than beating a bad team, but you don't want a 0-9 loss to a good team either.

^^^that's not at all how tiers are determined.
Was I close? Can you clarify please. I typed I believe because I wasn't positive. Not being snarky, just best guess based on what I've read.

I don't pretend to know how FBR works. Tiers are, however, a bit subjective. In this instance, it appears that teams 1 and 2 are Tier 1. There can be very few or several in a tier. You can somewhat figure it out based on the tier records, but that's not always readily apparent either.

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