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Is 20 enough?

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Is 20 enough? Empty Is 20 enough?

Post by fangbracken on 26/07/14, 12:06 pm

What's the cutoff going to be to make it to D1? How many teams are going to be playing for the tie?

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Post by Guest on 26/07/14, 12:35 pm

fangbracken wrote:What's the cutoff going to be to make it to D1?  How many teams are going to be playing for the tie?

Yes, 20 points will be enough. It is probably not a mathematical certainty right now, but it would take a strange turn of events for the teams with 20 points not to make it.

The top 2 ranked teams in each group have taken care of business so they are sitting in first and second after two games.  This means every group tomorrow is 1st place v second place.  If every second place team won tomorrow then a 20 point team could miss out, but that is not going to happen.

I think 18 points will get you into D1.  Maybe it's greater than 18 - so 19 points.  If you don't care about finishing first or second as long as you qualify for D1 then I believe the only interesting groups left are C, F, H and J.  Those groups have a team with fewer than 18 points that could jump up and make D1 with win on Sunday.

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Post by kegsmen on 26/07/14, 01:35 pm

I think getting 18 points will leave you fighting next week to get into D3.

I agree that 19 points looks to be the break point where tiebreakers will be in effect, then it gets interesting.

20 points will be enough to get you into D1.

One more day for this round ladies, keep fighting on the pitch!!!
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Post by Guest on 26/07/14, 01:56 pm

PlanoBound wrote:
fangbracken wrote:What's the cutoff going to be to make it to D1?  How many teams are going to be playing for the tie?

Yes, 20 points will be enough. It is probably not a mathematical certainty right now, but it would take a strange turn of events for the teams with 20 points not to make it.

The top 2 ranked teams in each group have taken care of business so they are sitting in first and second after two games.  This means every group tomorrow is 1st place v second place.  If every second place team won tomorrow then a 20 point team could miss out, but that is not going to happen.

I think 18 points will get you into D1.  Maybe it's greater than 18 - so 19 points.  If you don't care about finishing first or second as long as you qualify for D1 then I believe the only interesting groups left are C, F, H and J.  Those groups have a team with fewer than 18 points that could jump up and make D1 with win on Sunday.

Not quite PB...  You have to look a little deeper than that...  In groups A & B, the #3 seed actually beat the #2 seed.

Sting North in group A is sitting VERY pretty with 10 pts. in hand, and playing the #52 seed in the tournament tomorrow morning.  So they could easily get themselves to 20 pts.

It's not a mathematical lock, but realistically, 20 pts. will get you in.  The dividing line will come at either 18 or 19, with the 3 teams already sitting at 19 pts. looking very good based on GD.  

Some strange things can obviously happen (and have happened in the past), but I think tomorrow will most likely come down to 5 teams battling for the final 3 spots...

D'Feeters White
Kicks
Sting Donovan
SFRC
Sting North

If SFRC can manage a draw against Sting D (which I think could be possible), that will get them to a minimum of 19 points, which means that Angell will have to put up at least a 9 pointer, and 'Feet White/Kicks would have to each at least put 1 in the back of the net in their games.

GSSC has an outside shot, but is either going to have beat Odyssey outright, or hope for a high scoring draw (i.e. 2-2 or 3-3) to get to 19 or 20.  Those teams have played each other quite a few times over the past couple of years, and it's usually a tight game.

I don't see Sting West getting a draw or win against DT South, FCD White will likely have to beat LP Owen outright (which I think is unlikely), and while FCD Central can get to a max of 18pts., I think they will have a hard time overcoming their current -6 GD to win a tiebreaker.

Again, there's a bunch more "what if's" and mathematical possibilities, but IMO, what I said above is likely how it will play out.

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Post by fangbracken on 26/07/14, 02:32 pm

Hmmm. If the tournament ended right now, 18 points would get you into D1. Will that still be enough tomorrow?
Interesting that brackets A-F play at 8am, and the highest 2nd place team in that group is at 18. We could know before 9:30am kickoff whether 20 is enough.

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Post by Guest on 26/07/14, 02:43 pm

Good point: in groups A and B the 3 seed is either 1 point behind the 2 seed (Group A) or tied with the head to head advantage (Group B).  So in those cases being close to the 2 seed and having the much easier game is an advantage to the 3 seed in each bracket.  So add groups A and B to the interesting group list.

Of course, if the 3 seed in groups A and B win big they will end up in the 18-20 point range which we agree is the crucial range.

I stand by my belief that every team with 20 points will make D1 and that not much interesting will happen tomorrow - at least 17 teams: the 14 with 20 points and the 3 with 19 points: will make D1.

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Post by GrandTXSoccer on 26/07/14, 03:00 pm

Kind if fun, as of today there is one team that's advanced, LP Elite, most everything else is still up for grabs technically.

My gut says Sting North angell gets in and the last spot comes down to kicks and Dfeeters white and if either of them can get win, tie, or score tomorrow. Should be fun.

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Post by soccerjack on 26/07/14, 03:11 pm

GrandTXSoccer wrote:Kind if fun, as of today there is one team that's advanced, LP Elite, most everything else is still up for grabs technically.

My gut says Sting North angell gets in and the last spot comes down to kicks and Dfeeters white and if either of them can get win, tie, or score tomorrow. Should be fun.

Whats more interesting is LFS Black is playing Kicks. Crazy.
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Post by Guest on 26/07/14, 03:27 pm

GrandTXSoccer wrote:Kind if fun, as of today there is one team that's advanced, LP Elite, most everything else is still up for grabs technically.

My gut says Sting North angell gets in and the last spot comes down to kicks and Dfeeters white and if either of them can get win, tie, or score tomorrow. Should be fun.

Technically yes, but even before the tournament you are pretty sure the top ten (or more) seeds will be D1.  I still think it is more fun to give teams two weeks to earn their way into D1.  I liked last year's set up more.

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Post by soccerjack on 26/07/14, 03:35 pm

soccerjack wrote:
GrandTXSoccer wrote:Kind if fun, as of today there is one team that's advanced, LP Elite, most everything else is still up for grabs technically.

My gut says Sting North angell gets in and the last spot comes down to kicks and Dfeeters white and if either of them can get win, tie, or score tomorrow. Should be fun.

Whats more interesting is LFS Black is playing Kicks.  Crazy.

Actually pretty cool...two teams with the same coach....both outcomes can effect the sister team getting into D-1. Great job LFS.
Two great teams....Good luck
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Post by SocDad on 26/07/14, 03:49 pm

So now that DIV 1 is about to be slotted.....How do they seed for Round 2/Div 3?

By Points?  Did they send LHGCL officials out to observe Smile  Are they going to use the FBR?  What a Face
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Post by Guest on 26/07/14, 06:36 pm

SocDad wrote:So now that DIV 1 is about to be slotted.....How do they seed for Round 2/Div 3?

By Points?  Did they send LHGCL officials out to observe Smile  Are they going to use the FBR?  What a Face

Under the "old" system, the week 2 brackets had a very predictable format based on week 1 results, and it was pretty easy to avoid week 1/week 2 mismatches. This year, I have no clue how they will form week 2 brackets, so I am just as interested in the next person to see how it works out.

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Post by YellowCarded on 26/07/14, 10:10 pm

20 should be enough unless there are a lot of tie games Sunday.

Sunday should have some close contests. We have seen a lot of lop-sided scores so far. The four seeds in all the pods have been out-scored 150 to 1. The three seeds have been outscored 88 to 11 and have compiled a record of 2 wins, 4 ties and 20 loses.

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Post by mck125 on 27/07/14, 09:35 am

Did anyone re-run the analysis after the morning games? Looked like no surprises, so I'm thinking 20 pts might be officially thru...?
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Post by dreadpirateroberts on 27/07/14, 09:57 am

20 Definitely enough. Maybe 19.
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