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05 LHQT bracket analysis - Page 6 Pixel
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05 LHQT bracket analysis

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Post by Guest 27/07/15, 09:31 am

EyeOut wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
FLGator wrote:
bwgophers wrote:
FriscoSoccer05 wrote:
seeyouonthepitch wrote:When are the round two brackets expected?
Back on topic please. AKA no more TD posts

So what does round 2 brackets look like?

This is what I come up with based on using the historical methodology and adjusting some 4th place teams to eliminate rematches of week 1 games.  We'll see how close I am or if LHGCL punishes me again for trying to predict what they will actually do... Twisted Evil

05 LHQT bracket analysis - Page 6 Week2_10

Eliminated:  FCD White, FCD North Red


Interesting that Sting Parsons and Sting Sanchez could quite possibly both end up in D3 while one of the Sting West teams could end up in D1. affraid   Typical U11 QT surprises...

Since bracket Z looks cut off, I guess that leaves DT Stark, FCD North Blue, Andro West Red Duren, and Dallas Kicks?
 Only cut off if you are looking at it on a phone, but yes...

Two brackets without a Top 20 LH seed?  Interesting

Interesting, but not uncommon. If I remember correctly, the '03's had a week 2 bracket that didn't even have a top 30 seed in it, meaning a team seeded outside the top 30 was guaranteed a D1 spot. Warriors '03 got it, went 1-18 with a -68 GD in D1 at U11, and followed that up with a last place finish in D3 at U12. It happens...

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Post by EyeOut 27/07/15, 09:49 am

Then they have a history that shows what a mistake it would be to simply do as they've always done.  Not sure why they would gift two teams outside of their own top 20 with a spot in D1.  Two teams outside of the top 20 will end up D1 simply because LH stuck with their formula and showed no discretion.

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Post by unknowingmom 27/07/15, 10:00 am

I think if these teams won their spot they deserve to be there. If a top 20 team didnt earn their spot oh well. Why should they change because you dont like the outcome. I should hope that over the years they have made it the way it is for this reason exactly. If you want in u have to win.
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Post by EyeOut 27/07/15, 10:06 am

But they didn't "win" their spot. They simply finished where they finished and, if LH uses its past formula, the teams were just arbitrarily assigned brackets that don't have top 20 teams in them.

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Post by unknowingmom 27/07/15, 10:19 am

So they were put in a sucky bracket and didnt win or finished 4th and put in a bracket? Not sure what u mean by finished where they finished. Dont all brackets have 2nd and third place finishers. So not sure how its not fair. 12 of the top 20 would have went to d1 if they won then the other top 20 should be in a place to win, if If was a skif we all float away. Point is if they change it to cater to the top 20 hiw is that fair. And well who says they are really top 20. Isnt that the point of qualifying. U have to deal with the racket outcomes. Surprises or not. I'm sure lp elite was not expecting to be here this weekend.
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Post by Guest 27/07/15, 10:49 am

I'm with unknowingmom on this one. There is no 100% perfect or fair way to do it.

Re-seed week 2 based on week 1 seeds? Well... what if a gross seeding mistake was made in week 1?

Re-seed based on week 1 points? You'll end up with just a many "wacky" brackets as you have with the current methodology, plus you'll have a lot more headaches with shuffling teams, unless you allow for week 1 rematches in week 2. Also, what do you do if you have a 3rd place team that scores more points in week 1 than some 2nd place teams do? (happened this year).

Again, the point to all of this is that there is no 100% "perfect" way to do this. Every year, you end up with 1 or 2 teams in D1 that probably should have been in D3, 1 or 2 teams in D3 that probably should have been in D1, 1 or 2 teams that probably shouldn't have made LHGCL at all, and 1 or 2 teams that end up in PPL that probably should have been in LHGCL. However, you don't really know that for sure until you play through the full U11 season and let promotion/relegation start to take care of that (although even that is far from 100% perfect). Some teams surprise, and some teams tank.

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Post by SuperKarateChop 27/07/15, 10:53 am

We have come a long way as a society.  The pressure on DD's to build up our ego is a testament to how 'advanced' we have become.

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Post by EyeOut 27/07/15, 11:00 am

There isn't a perfect methodology. But the brackets should be based on some form of judgment, which they were in week 1.  If you want to look at points, only two teams outside of LH's top 20 didn't finish in the top 20 in points: NTFC Black and Sting Sanchez who finished 21st and 26th in points.  Interestingly, replacing NTFC Black in Sanchez in the top 20 were No. 21 DTS Stark and No. 30 Divas.  Seems to me LH did a pretty good job of seeding.  So look at the original seeding, tweak it based on results, and seed it fairly, not arbitrarily based on a pre-set snake.

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Post by soccergirlsdad 27/07/15, 11:02 am

The only measuring stick you have to go on is performance.  You can make all the inferences you want, but there is no way of knowing why a particular outcome was reached.  Was a given team under-performing over the past few months?  Did a mediocre team pick up some talent?  Did a good team lose a key player?  Did something finally gel for that team that had been right on the cusp?  It's impossible to know unless you've been eyes-on with every team every game...and even then it's subject to your own interpretation.

If LH tries to make allowance for matchups or past history in any way other than the initial seeding, that introduces a bias against teams that improved over the past two months when there was nobody around to see it.  If they squeak into D1 and don't continue to perform...too bad...but nobody can know that for sure until they actually get there.

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Post by unknowingmom 27/07/15, 11:05 am

But isnt the snake based on the original seeding outcomes being as they should be with no surprises.
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Post by EyeOut 27/07/15, 11:33 am

Yes, unknowingmom, but with "no surprises." By the way, the big 3 surprises were all 1-goal games against No. 2 seeds. So are you suggesting that Fever, who finished with 2 goals and 13 points, should be seeded 9 spots ahead of LP Elite, 5 spots ahead of Rush? It's not like these teams were overranked. LP Elite, Rush, and FWFC deserve the top 3 seeds.

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Post by FLGator 27/07/15, 12:03 pm

EyeOut wrote:Yes, unknowingmom, but with "no surprises."  By the way, the big 3 surprises were all 1-goal games against No. 2 seeds.  So are you suggesting that Fever, who finished with 2 goals and 13 points, should be seeded 9 spots ahead of LP Elite, 5 spots ahead of Rush?  It's not like these teams were overranked.  LP Elite, Rush, and FWFC deserve the top 3 seeds.  

I think the misconception here is that these teams are re-"seeded" for the second week. Fever is not seeded higher than anyone of the other 2nd place finishers. The merely start in the middle with the week 2 bracket and work their way out, then go opposite corners of the bracket all the way across.
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Post by soccergirlsdad 27/07/15, 12:09 pm

I understand your point, EyeOut, but you can't discount the fact that those teams lost.  I'm not arguing in favor of Fever...but LP Elite didn't just lose to a No. 2 seed...they lost to a team that was seeded 19(!!) spots below them.  Rush lost to a team seeded 11 spots below them.  In the case of LP Elite, it's made worse because they scored 12 goals in 2 games and lost to a team that only scored 5 the entire tournament.  At least Rush scored 13 and lost to a team that scored 11.  However, all that really proves is that they really know how to beat up on weak competition.  I don't think you can start giving the benefit of the doubt, and re-seed accordingly, just because some teams didn't get it done the first weekend.

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Post by Ev23 27/07/15, 12:12 pm

Those teams were set up to qualify in week one, they didn't get it done. Why would a league change their format cause certain teams didn't handle their business when they had a chance to?
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Post by Guest 27/07/15, 12:43 pm

if they base their week 1 seeding and bracketing on judgment and team results history, it seems they should continue using judgment and history and not just follow the results of week 1. If they determine which 4th place seeds get to play based on points, then determine who plays whom factoring them in as well. Some higher ranked teams get a gift of a bracket for week 2, and some higher ranked teams get a tough bracket if they follow their original snake continuation. I would think the overall goal of the committee would try to get the best competition for their leagues and not risk getting several 20 plus ranked teams in the league all because of the original bracketing snake. My two cents.

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Post by orbitzone2000 27/07/15, 01:19 pm

Bracket Z is the issue. All four teams were originally seeded out side the Top 30 teams. My question is why would you not look at performance in Round 1 vs how to setup Round 2? When you have a Bracket that contains the 32, 33, 37 & 42 seeded teams in the second round, Why would you not tweak that? It makes sense to tweak it based on if these teams will be competitive in D1 or not. All you have to do is look at Round 1 results to see it doesn't make sense. Between the 4 teams in Group Z they scored a combined total of 5 goals for and gave up a total of 36. For those of you who can't add and subtract that's -31 goal differential combined. You can't tell me an NTFC Black or Sting Sanchez shouldn't be in this group as a 1 seed. It really comes down to common Sense to me, No bias comes into play. Your not trying to keep a team out but you sure don't want to set it up to where your Gauranteeing a Team a D1 spot that doesn't belong. I would ask, what did FCD North Blue do to deserve a #1 seed in Round 2? Or did they just get Lucky and fall into that spot because of a flawed system? The LH committee has a chance to fix it. Although I'm sure they will let this stand and as in previous years there will be a team that has no business in D1 ie: Mustangs 03.

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Post by orbitzone2000 27/07/15, 01:23 pm

Ev23 wrote:Those teams were set up to qualify in week one, they didn't get it done.  Why would a league change their format cause certain teams didn't handle their business when they had a chance to?
I don't see the issue of gifted soft Groups for the higher ranked teams. Rush, LP Elite, & FWFC are all #1 seeds right?

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Post by seeyouonthepitch 27/07/15, 01:28 pm

I believe most of the issue is with "top ranked" teams basically playing against each other and eliminating themselves. Where as others will benefit from playing "lower ranked" teams against themselves. I agree that second round is not going to make everybody happy but strength of play and earlier seeding should come into play.
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Post by KeeperCommander 27/07/15, 01:36 pm

I think every year people get on here and talk about how it should be. Problem is it will never be perfect. If you set it up one way this year, it is not guaranteed that it will be perfect next year. Too many variables involved like upsets or 30+ seeds playing great because of a great tourney or because they had a great July 1. With that being said LH would have to let everyone know that there will be no rhyme or reason to how the brackets are set up until they know who is left. I don't think anything should be set up depending on who is playing. I really don't think anything works that way.

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Post by EyeOut 27/07/15, 01:37 pm

soccergirlsdad wrote:I understand your point, EyeOut, but you can't discount the fact that those teams lost.  I'm not arguing in favor of Fever...but LP Elite didn't just lose to a No. 2 seed...they lost to a team that was seeded 19(!!) spots below them.  Rush lost to a team seeded 11 spots below them.  In the case of LP Elite, it's made worse because they scored 12 goals in 2 games and lost to a team that only scored 5 the entire tournament.  At least Rush scored 13 and lost to a team that scored 11.  However, all that really proves is that they really know how to beat up on weak competition.  I don't think you can start giving the benefit of the doubt, and re-seed accordingly, just because some teams didn't get it done the first weekend.

I don't discount that they lost tough 1-goal games that they probably shouldn't have lost.  I'm simply suggesting that they remain the best teams playing in week 2 and should be seeded accordingly along with everyone else based on some judgment using pre-week 1 seeding and week 1 results.  Want to ding them a bit for their upsets? Go ahead, but not by more than a spot or two.  If you can honestly say that you don't think LP Elite and Rush are better than every team left in the tourney, then I will never convince you that this formula is unjust and doesn't apply logic or reason.  By sticking the formula for formula's sake (if that's what LH does), it leads to the real possibility that teams that aren't worthy of D1 will be in D1.

By the way, under last year's format, which most people seemed to favor, we're not having this conversation.  Two teams outside the top 20 wouldn't have qualified for D1 (and nobody here would argue that they deserve D1 based on last week's results).

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Post by Guest 27/07/15, 01:37 pm

orbitzone2000 wrote:Bracket Z is the issue. All four teams were originally seeded out side the Top 30 teams. My question is why would you not look at performance in Round 1 vs how to setup Round 2? When you have a Bracket that contains the 32, 33, 37 & 42 seeded teams in the second round, Why would you not tweak that?

1) First of all, those are the FBR rankings, not the LHGCL QT seeds.
2) Second (and more importantly), it's Dallas Texans (#19 FBR, #21 QT seed) that is in that bracket, NOT Dallas Texans Red (#42 FBR & QT Seed).

If Texans wins that bracket, I don't see how you could call that team qualifying for D1 unfair.

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Post by SOUTHOFTHETRACKS 27/07/15, 01:45 pm

orbitzone2000 wrote:Bracket Z is the issue. All four teams were originally seeded out side the Top 30 teams. My question is why would you not look at performance in Round 1 vs how to setup Round 2? When you have a Bracket that contains the 32, 33, 37 & 42 seeded teams in the second round, Why would you not tweak that? It makes sense to tweak it based on if these teams will be competitive in D1 or not. All you have to do is look at Round 1 results to see it doesn't make sense. Between the 4 teams in Group Z they scored a combined total of 5 goals for and gave up a total of 36. For those of you who can't add and subtract that's -31 goal differential combined. You can't tell me an NTFC Black or Sting Sanchez shouldn't be in this group as a 1 seed. It really comes down to common Sense to me, No bias comes into play. Your not trying to keep a team out but you sure don't want to set it up to where your Gauranteeing a Team a D1 spot that doesn't belong. I would ask, what did FCD North Blue do to deserve a #1 seed in Round 2? Or did they just get Lucky and fall into that spot because of a flawed system? The LH committee has a chance to fix it. Although I'm sure they will let this stand and as in previous years there will be a team that has no business in D1 ie: Mustangs 03.

Correct me if im wrong but Werent these teams actually 21 (Dallas Texans, 29 FCD Blue North, 32 Kicks, and 36 Andro West?
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Post by SOUTHOFTHETRACKS 27/07/15, 01:46 pm

Well there ya go... Gophers beat me to the punch.
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Post by Guest 27/07/15, 01:47 pm

EyeOut wrote:
By the way, under last year's format, which most people seemed to favor, we're not having this conversation.  Two teams outside the top 20 wouldn't have qualified for D1 (and nobody here would argue that they deserve D1 based on last week's results).

Umm...  Helloooooooo....

Under last years format, #21 Dallas Texans, #22  FCD North White, and #24 Sting West (West) would all have qualified for D1. (with Sting West (West) just barely squeaking in ahead of #41 Sting West (Bean) based on goal differential).

Oh by the way... if the week #2 brackets go according to form, you will have those exact same teams outside of the top 20 qualifying for D1...


Last edited by bwgophers on 27/07/15, 01:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by EyeOut 27/07/15, 01:49 pm

bwgophers wrote:
orbitzone2000 wrote:Bracket Z is the issue. All four teams were originally seeded out side the Top 30 teams. My question is why would you not look at performance in Round 1 vs how to setup Round 2? When you have a Bracket that contains the 32, 33, 37 & 42 seeded teams in the second round, Why would you not tweak that?

1)  First of all, those are the FBR rankings, not the LHGCL QT seeds.
2)  Second (and more importantly), it's Dallas Texans (#19 FBR, #21 QT seed) that is in that bracket, NOT Dallas Texans Red (#42 FBR & QT Seed).  

If Texans wins that bracket, I don't see how you could call that team qualifying for D1 unfair.

BW is right. And based on the points and GDs in that bracket from week 1, I'd argue it's one of the toughest four brackets.

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Post by dadof3 27/07/15, 02:08 pm

So the question is this...

Which brackets have an upset winner go to D1? Which #3 seeds make it into D3?
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