LH Seeding and how it played out compared to Last FBR

Red=D1
Blue=D2
Black=DNQ

LHGCL Seeding Order (the color tells where the team ended up after 2 Rounds of QT)

1 FC Dallas Premier
2 Texans Higg
3 Solar Red
4 Texans South
5 Solar Dynamo
6 Fever Red
7 FC Dallas Blue
8 Sting Rezaie
9 Waco Lady Blast
10 Andromeda Red Wells
11 FC Dallas South Red
12 Dynasty
13 Sting East Dunstan
14 Solar Chelsea Gio
15 FC Premier
16 D’Feeters
17 TFC Larry
18 Solar Chelsea Stark
19 Mustangs
20 LP Dalglish
21 Saints
22 FC Dallas East
23 Polaris
24 Celtic
25 Andromeda Blue
26 FC Dallas West
27 Lady Titans
28 Andromeda
29 Sting Parker
30 LP Keegan
31 Dallas Texans Red Vigil
32 Odyssey White
33 FC Dallas Red
34 Cosmos Black
35 LP Thompson
36 Dallas Kicks
37 LP Rush
38 Texas Thunder
39 FWFC White
40 Sting Cuevas
41 Solar Chelsea Gold
42 LP Hansen
43 TFC Blue
44 Crush
45 LP Nicol


Now, here is the same comparison but using the last FBR info...
Last FBR
1 FC Dallas Premier
2 Solar Red
3 Texans South
4 Texans Higg
5 Solar Dynamo
6 FC Dallas Blue
7 Solar Gio
8 Fever Red
9 D’Feeters
10 Andromeda Red
11 FC Dallas South
12 Waco Lady Blast
13 Sting Rezaie
14 Saints
15 Dynasty
16 Sting East Dunstan
17 Andromeda Powers
18 LP Thompson
19 Sting Parker
20 FC Dallas East
21 TFC Larry
22 Solar Stark
23 LP Keegan
24 Celtic
25 Mustangs
26 Dallas Kicks
27 Cosmos Black
28 FC Premier
29 LP Dalglish
30 Odyssey
31 Dallas Texans Red Vigil
32 Polaris
33 LP Rush
34 Texas Thunder
35 LP Hansen
36 FWFC White
37 Lady Titans
38 FC Dallas West
39 Solar Gold
40 TFC Blue
41 Sting Cuevas
42 LP Nicol
43 Andromeda Blue
44 Crush
45 FC Dallas Red

Slight confused but I think I follow?

Maybe BWG could break it down with his numbers, accuracy, who/what did or didn't work, and where the FBRs strengths and weaknesses are?

Much to ask I'm sure but it's a thought.

I think I understand. FBR is more accurate than the seeding committee, which is what I suspected.

Sting Parker should be in red in the LHQ list

Soccergirls3 wrote:Sting Parker should be in red in the LHQ list

Sorry...fixed

It looks like the seeding was on point for the first week and was on point the second week. The teams that are in should be in. All the should of and would of doesn't matter anymore. Let's play soccer now.

garcialopez02 wrote:It looks like the seeding was on point for the first week and was on point the second week. The teams that are in should be in. All the should of and would of doesn't matter anymore. Let's play soccer now.

Amen

Actually, FBR and LHGCL seeding have been almost a complete wash over the past 2 years.



Both have been roughly 85-90% accurate. Similar types of hit and misses

This year -

LH was correct on the following:

FC Premier (LH #15/FBR #28) qualified D1
Saints (LH #21/FBR #14) qualified D3

FBR was correct on the following:

Sting Parker (LH #26/FBR #19) qualified D1
LP Thompson (LH #32/FBR #18) qualified D1

There were a few more "minor" misses on the D1/D3 split and the D3/NQ split by both, but all in all pretty much a wash.

A couple of teams got favorable seeds and took advantage.
A couple of teams got favorable seeds and couldn't take advantage.
A couple of teams got a bum seed and it probably impacted where they qualified.
A couple of teams got a bum seed and still qualified where they should have.

bwgophers wrote:Actually, FBR and LHGCL seeding have been almost a complete wash over the past 2 years.



Both have been roughly 85-90% accurate. Similar types of hit and misses

This year -

LH was correct on the following:

FC Premier (LH #15/FBR #28) qualified D1
Saints (LH #21/FBR #14) qualified D3

FBR was correct on the following:

Sting Parker (LH #26/FBR #19) qualified D1
LP Thompson (LH #32/FBR #18) qualified D1

There were a few more "minor" misses on the D1/D3 split and the D3/NQ split by both, but all in all pretty much a wash.

A couple of teams got favorable seeds and took advantage.
A couple of teams got favorable seeds and couldn't take advantage.
A couple of teams got a bum seed and it probably impacted where they qualified.
A couple of teams got a bum seed and still qualified where they should have.

Hey Gophers:

Can you redo your statistics to ignore the top 15 teams? I believe that the final 25 teams are the ones that truly determine how accurate the seeding of a tournament of this size is. Those teams are the toughest to get a feeling for.

I suspect that FBR is more accurate than the seeding committee but I don't know that for sure.

Blitzed wrote:

bwgophers wrote:Actually, FBR and LHGCL seeding have been almost a complete wash over the past 2 years.



Both have been roughly 85-90% accurate. Similar types of hit and misses

This year -

LH was correct on the following:

FC Premier (LH #15/FBR #28) qualified D1
Saints (LH #21/FBR #14) qualified D3

FBR was correct on the following:

Sting Parker (LH #26/FBR #19) qualified D1
LP Thompson (LH #32/FBR #18) qualified D1

There were a few more "minor" misses on the D1/D3 split and the D3/NQ split by both, but all in all pretty much a wash.

A couple of teams got favorable seeds and took advantage.
A couple of teams got favorable seeds and couldn't take advantage.
A couple of teams got a bum seed and it probably impacted where they qualified.
A couple of teams got a bum seed and still qualified where they should have.

Hey Gophers:

Can you redo your statistics to ignore the top 15 teams? I believe that the final 25 teams are the ones that truly determine how accurate the seeding of a tournament of this size is. Those teams are the toughest to get a feeling for.

I suspect that FBR is more accurate than the seeding committee but I don't know that for sure.

I have "owned" FBR for the past 2 years. If FBR proved to be more accurate than the LHGCL seeding, I'd make sure that everyone knew about it.

The thing is, that's just not the case. No matter how you slice the data, FBR and LHGCL seeding have been equally accurate in predicting the final results of the QT.

Both last year and this year, there have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-10 teams where there is a large disagreement (>8 or 9 spots) between LHGCL seeding and FBR ranking. In these cases, it's been almost exactly a 50/50 split between whether the team actually qualified in line with the LHGCL seeding, or with the FBR ranking.

Bottom line.. over the past 2 years, if FBR had a team ranked in the top 20 in the final ranking prior to QT, 87.5% of the time, that team qualified for LHGCL D1. If FBR had a team in the top 30, 90% of the time, that team qualified for LHGCL.

Over those same 2 years, 87.5% of the top 20 LHGCL QT seeds qualified for D1, and 90% of the LHGCL top 30 seeds qualified for LHGCL.

Take your pick.