LHGCL Scoring Comparison By Division

Analytics? I got 'em. Comparing 2013 (Fall) to 2012 (Fall/Spring), I discovered the following results by Division:

D1: Scoring is 2.8 goals per game, up 0.2 goals per game from last year. An 8% increase.

D2: Scoring is 2.4 goals per game, down 0.1 goals per game from last year. A 3% decrease.

D3: Scoring is 3.3 goals per game, up 1.1 goals per game from last year. A 50% increase.

This seems intuitive to me. D2 gets Solar Monte and Diamonds, loses FCD Pratt and Sting Gutierrez. Two strong teams coming in, two teams needing a retooling leaving. D1 loses Texans Hollis and Solar Monte, gains another Texans team, a wash. D3 loses a stingy Diamonds team and Texans Glotzbach, gains the qualifiers plus Texans Red. Still, 50% is a significant jump. Thoughts?

allhatnocattle wrote:Thoughts?

Are you related to Gophers?

Sweeper wrote:

allhatnocattle wrote:Thoughts?

Are you related to Gophers?

 
Haha no.  But I know who he is.  Was just curious since there seem to be more lopsided results this year.

allhatnocattle wrote:

Sweeper wrote:

allhatnocattle wrote:Thoughts?

Are you related to Gophers?

 
Haha no.  But I know who he is.  Was just curious since there seem to be more lopsided results this year.

I could explain it, but I'd need charts, and graphs, and an easel...

bwgophers wrote:

allhatnocattle wrote:

Sweeper wrote:

allhatnocattle wrote:Thoughts?

Are you related to Gophers?

 
Haha no.  But I know who he is.  Was just curious since there seem to be more lopsided results this year.

I could explain it, but I'd need charts, and graphs, and an easel...

I'm humbled by the participation and presence of txsoccer.net stalwarts like Sweeper and BWG.

allhatnocattle wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

allhatnocattle wrote:

Sweeper wrote:

allhatnocattle wrote:Thoughts?

Are you related to Gophers?

 
Haha no.  But I know who he is.  Was just curious since there seem to be more lopsided results this year.

I could explain it, but I'd need charts, and graphs, and an easel...

I'm humbled by the participation and presence of txsoccer.net stalwarts like Sweeper and BWG.

Your standards are lower than I thought.

The data would seem to be influenced by player movements and retirements in addition to the team movements, which you noted. Heck, even weather could play a factor as well as field conditions - no more Moss for instance. The D1 and D2 variances are likely not statistically significant, but the D3 variance seems pretty meaningful. I have no better explanation than what you offered however.

If my math is correct:

TX Lightning-BLK scored 17 goals through 9 games last fall; so far this year, they have 28 goals in 9 matches.  
2012 GPG = 1.89  2013 GPG = 3.11, a 65% increase.

Sting-North (prev TFC-Blue) looks to have scored 9 goals in 9 matches last fall; while they have scored 30 goals so far this year in 8 matches.   
2012 GPG = 1.0, 2013 GPG = 3.75, a 275% increase.

So, while TXL's increase is impressive it looks like Sting-North really developed or acquired a scoring machine or two.

The answer to the variance in D3 is simple-the quality of the bottom 4 teams is worse then it was last year.  And they're all teams that are essentially "new" to LHGCL D3 (with exception of Kicks Blue). Combine that with a consolidation of talent at the higher level teams & player retention of those teams keeping chemistry intact, then the rocket science is no longer needed.

-FC Dallas got killed last year in D2 where they didn't belong...........thanks to the club bye they received, probably had a lot of turnover from getting the beat downs, and are now where they belong (or are they?).  Basically picked up a bunch of PPL players from what I heard.
-DT Red is DT White from last year, a mid-level PPL team that benefited from the club bye system that's been debated at length.  
-Sting Central is basically an 02 team that screwed Sting West out of the club bye.  Audrey's team ran off, many to NTX Strikers, and this team got the relegated bye in to D3.  Don't belong in D3 for this age group.  Enough said.
-And Kicks Blue is overrated for league play..........see last years results (who says those guests in tournaments from their sister teams don't make an impact).  

There's simply a bigger gap.  End of last year only top 3 teams had positive GD.  So far this year, it's the top 6.......and the bottom 4 are all in negative double digits already.  Granted there's still a few games to be played, but here's the proof:

GOALS DIFFERENTIAL 2012/2013 FALL & SPRING
Diamonds = +25
Texas Lightning +25
TFC Blue (Sting North) +10
Cosmos -3
DT Red -3
Redstar -5
AFC Red -5
Lady Aztecs -10
Sting West -6
Kicks Blue -21

GOALS DIFFERENTIAL 2013 FALL ONLY
Sting North +26
Texas Lightning +22
NTX Strikers +3
Redstar +7
Cosmos +2
Lady Aztecs +3
FC Dallas -11
DT Red -14
Sting Central -20
Kicks Blue -18

I guess it can probably be summed up this way..............all the teams that remained from D3 last year are benefiting from lesser competition at the bottom half of the table.  I will give credit that they have all likely improved and shows that retention of players does make a major impact considering majority of their rosters stayed intact from last year (see Sting North as a perfect example).  Ironically, it also gives proof that LHGCL's club bye rule is basically crap (FCD last year in D2 & still can't get it right in D3, DT Red & Sting Central this year).  Kicks Blue, well, it's hard when you can't borrow players isn't it.....................

I'm ordering you a kicks blue hoodie for xmas. You've been naughty.

4-3-3 wrote:I'm ordering you a kicks blue hoodie for xmas. You've been naughty.

        

me?obsessed? wrote: Audrey's team ran off, many to NTX Strikers, and this team got the relegated bye in to D3.  
:

Not completely true.  

The bulk of AG's team moved to (D2) Sting Gray.  A couple went to Kicks Blue, a couple to Strikers, and the Keeper moved to (D1) Sting Flanagan.

Mia Hamster wrote:

me?obsessed? wrote: Audrey's team ran off, many to NTX Strikers, and this team got the relegated bye in to D3.  
:

Not completely true.  

The bulk of AG's team moved to (D2) Sting Gray.  A couple went to Kicks Blue, a couple to Strikers, and the Keeper moved to (D1) Sting Flanagan.

Several, a couple, whatever. So where did the Sting Grey players go the AG players replaced?

me?obsessed? wrote:

Mia Hamster wrote:

me?obsessed? wrote: Audrey's team ran off, many to NTX Strikers, and this team got the relegated bye in to D3.  
:

Not completely true.  

The bulk of AG's team moved to (D2) Sting Gray.  A couple went to Kicks Blue, a couple to Strikers, and the Keeper moved to (D1) Sting Flanagan.

Several, a couple, whatever.  So where did the Sting Grey players go the AG players replaced?

A couple quit the game, at least one is on Aztecs. I don't know about others.