Schedule announced for 2014 US Youth Soccer Region III Championships

This will be very Interesting. This was a blind draw what are the odds.

Pool A June 20-26 in Baton Rouge, La.
(TX-N) (SQ) Sting Central '00 (Parker)  
(TX-N) (PLW1) Solar Chelsea Elite 00    
(TX-S) (SC) Classics Elite    
(TX-N) (PLW2) Sting 00G (Flanagan)

How crappy is that!! Blind...hmmm

That's awfully weird that 16 teams with 4 brackets and all North Texas teams end up in the same bracket.
I'm sure all of the other states are happy with the brackets.

http://tournaments.usyouthsoccer.org/events/2014-Region-III-Championships/Schedule/U14-Girls/Division+1/

Oswald wasn't alone either

Is it possible that they held the Texas teams out so that only one team would advance and not four. That's what it looks like for sure.

This draw is a joke! It looks like the tournament is being set up to give other states a chance. USYSA must really be hurting for quality teams from other states.

My guess is there's an unusual number of representatives from TX-N: 3. Traditionally it has been 1, maybe 2, so I bet they're eliminating some through pool play to create balance. From an integrity standpoint, if you say "blind draw", then it should be that. No way this is blind.

Any statistical gurus out there who know how to calculate the odds of this happening? Would like to see that.

Sorry, I tried but I ran out of fingers and toes.   

Odds are definitely greater than 23

In the very simplest form I come up with the odds being 1 in 50,000. In the more complicated method, the odds would go into the millions if not billions

Here is the simple form

Let's say they drew from the pool of 16 and started with the assumption that the first 4 teams drawn would be pool A. Chances of a team being drawn are 1 in 16 or .0625. The second draw is 1 in 15 and so on.
1/16 X 1/15 X 1/14 X 1/13 = .00002289

Or about 1 in 50,000 The odds go waaaaaaaayyyyy up from there

They rigged it. Bush league crap.

How many teams and # of brackets are there for the Region 3 Championships?

Ok, so I was intrigued by the question too...and I am absolutely certain that I have solved the problem.

I agree this was ridiculously long odds, but I don't quite have it at 1/50,000.

Here is my thinking...I may have to take a break after this...and I will sit back and let someone like BWG put me in my place.

The first team placed being placed in ANY group was 1/1, so remove that one. All the teams would find a bracket...100% certainty.

The second Texas team being placed in the SAME bracket was 3/15 because there are 3 Texas teams and 15 places to put them...creates a 1/5 chance that ANY Texas team would be placed with the first one.

The third Texas team being placed in the same bracket was 2/14 because there were 2 Texas teams left and 14 spots...

The fourth Texas team had a 1/13 chance of being placed there...

So I get:

1 x 3/15 x 2/14 x 1/13 for a 1 in 455 chance...which is monstrously ridiculous, but slightly better odds than...that we will see a post from JD where he comments on RASE's defacto 04 dominance which links to LH's decision to sanction the 99 Mustangs which was generated by the 2 03 SRSA studs playing up which caused the movement of the 00s this summer...which comes in at 1/450...I did the math...trust me.

Per my brother, he knows more math than anyone else I personally know. He has lots of letters at the end of his name, bestowed upon him by Carolina & Duke. He could be wrong, but I'll put my money on him.

Re:
I think your answer is about right. Here are the details. First some
notation. ! (exclamation point) means "factorial". For example 4! = 4 x
3 x 2 x 1.
There are 16!/(4!4!4!4!) ways of seeding 16 teams into 4 bins with 4 teams
in each bin or bracket or whatever you call it. 16!/(4!4!4!4!)
= 63,063,000.
Now, of those 63 million ways of seeding 16 teams, only 1820 of them have
the 4 Texas teams seeded in the same bin.
The math for that is 16!/(4!12!) = 1820. So under a random draw, the
probability of all 4 Texas teams being in the same bracket is
1820 divided by 63,063,000 or about 3 in 100,000.

I STILL THINK ITS RIGGED AND I STILL THINK ITS BUSH LEAGUE.

dadof3 wrote:Ok, so I was intrigued by the question too...and I am absolutely certain that I have solved the problem.

I agree this was ridiculously long odds, but I don't quite have it at 1/50,000.

Here is my thinking...I may have to take a break after this...and I will sit back and let someone like BWG put me in my place.

The first team placed being placed in ANY group was 1/1, so remove that one.  All the teams would find a bracket...100% certainty.

The second Texas team being placed in the SAME bracket was 3/15 because there are 3 Texas teams and 15 places to put them...creates a 1/5 chance that ANY Texas team would be placed with the first one.

The third Texas team being placed in the same bracket was 2/14 because there were 2 Texas teams left and 14 spots...

The fourth Texas team had a 1/13 chance of being placed there...

So I get:

1 x 3/15 x 2/14 x 1/13 for a 1 in 455 chance...which is monstrously ridiculous, but slightly better odds than...that we will see a post from JD where he comments on RASE's defacto 04 dominance which links to LH's decision to sanction the 99 Mustangs which was generated by the 2 03 SRSA studs playing up which caused the movement of the 00s this summer...which comes in at 1/450...I did the math...trust me.

This math is right.

I see what you did there

I am not sure my math is right...combinations and permutations were long ago...however...

Pale Rider wrote:I STILL THINK ITS RIGGED AND I STILL THINK ITS BUSH LEAGUE.

This is a bet you should take! 100%

BTW-Good luck to all the teams involved! All the NTX teams are quality and I know you will show well!

My question would be.......Do they have to travel to Baton Rouge to play their bracket games?  Can't they just play them in DFW, save on hotels, travel, etc and then the top 2 travel to LA?

My question is....does anybody on the NTX board traveling to Regionals not care about this? If I'm them, I'm seriously questioning....out loud and openly.

Dang, that would rock if we could play locally - would save a lot given the game a day schedule. The blind draw is really the only way to level the playing field as there's not a good method to compare the states (although - it's pretty obvious to everyone TX/FL/GA are top dogs).
This leads to some huge upsets as states who wisely choose to not spend money on youth soccer get to watch TX/FL/GA/OK score a dozen with their keeper having a hat trick.

Last year, we had to play Tophat (who is qualified for Nationals already this year) in the second game. This pretty much meant, unless a similar match-up happened in the finals - the tourney could be over for one of the top teams in the nation by the second day. Thanks to some luck, wind, major upset in another bracket - Tophat was out. If the tournament had a true seeded draw - that wouldn't have happened.

In the National Championship (different age bracket) - 3 of the top 5-6 were in the same bracket - that was not good at all - you can, and did, end up with a lesser team in the finals. It's a tough deal, but, there truly is no way to seed these as teams/players change and there'd be a lot of complaining.

Good luck to everyone - think anyone would notice if we just played at the Sting Complex and reported the scores?

backofthenet wrote:My question is....does anybody on the NTX board traveling to Regionals not care about this? If I'm them, I'm seriously questioning....out loud and openly.

Definitely. Takes the fun out of playing other states. This is basically a repeat of State Cup and Premier League with the exception of adding a lot of '01s and removing ECNL players.

Conspiracy Theorists - be it known that the USYS governing body is located in Frisco. If anything - they have, but shouldn't, a Texan slant.

We get to know their employees and see them at events. They root for Tx, so, doubtful the draw is rigged, despite how horrid it is this year.

Hi Pack, There are 21 Texas Boys teams out of a total of 100 Boys Teams overall, and there are 19 Texas Girls teams out of a total of 100 Girls Teams overall.

Here are the individual groups and numbers:

U13 Boys - 12 teams (2 Texas teams in Pool B and Pool C)
U13 Girls - 12 teams (2 Texas teams in Pool A)

U14 Boys - 16 teams (1 Texas team in Pool C and two in Pool D)
U14 Girls - 16 teams (All four Texas teams in Pool A)

U15 Boys - 16 teams (2 Texas teams in Pool A and 1 in Pool C)
U15 Girls - 16 teams (1 Texas team in Pool A, one Texas team in Pool C and one Texas team in Pool D)

U16 Boys - 16 Teams (1 Texas team in Pool B and two Texas teams in Pool D)
U16 Girls - 16 teams (1 Texas team in Pool B and 1 in Pool C)

U17 Boys - 16 teams (2 Texas teams in Pool A and 2 teams in Pool D)
U17 Girls - 16 teams (2 Texas teams in Pool B, 1 team in Pool C and 1 team in Pool D)

U18 Boys - 16 teams (2 Texas teams in Pool B, 1 team in Pool C and 1 team in Pool D)
U18 Girls - 16 teams (1 Texas team each in Pools B, C and D)

U19 Boys - 8 teams ( 1 Texas team each in Pool A and B)
U19 Girls - 8 teams (1 Texas team in Pool B)

Travel to one state over to play teams that could be played over one weekend. Now that's a waste of money. It's hard to believe that USYS let the drawing stand.

Unbelievable. Horrible. I hope there is something that can be done. Since NTX got stuck into the same bracket, some of the areas must've had their brackets stacked and they might not be happy as well... Is there anything that can be done?

How many teams advance?

dadof3 wrote:
The first team placed being placed in ANY group was 1/1, so remove that one.  All the teams would find a bracket...100% certainty.

The second Texas team being placed in the SAME bracket was 3/15 because there are 3 Texas teams and 15 places to put them...creates a 1/5 chance that ANY Texas team would be placed with the first one.

The third Texas team being placed in the same bracket was 2/14 because there were 2 Texas teams left and 14 spots...

The fourth Texas team had a 1/13 chance of being placed there...

So I get:

1 x 3/15 x 2/14 x 1/13 for a 1 in 455 chance...which is monstrously ridiculous, but slightly better odds than...that we will see a post from JD where he comments on RASE's defacto 04 dominance which links to LH's decision to sanction the 99 Mustangs which was generated by the 2 03 SRSA studs playing up which caused the movement of the 00s this summer...which comes in at 1/450...I did the math...trust me.

Impressive D3, but I still am not convinced that Rider's economists brother-in-law is wrong... So you guys are pretty smart!  I submit this problem to you both determine who has the better mathematical acumen   

We have 4 teams: Solar Gold, Fever, FC blue and Andro.
Each teams offensive and defensive capability is ranked 1-4, with 1 being the highest and 4 the lowest. Those capabilities are assigned as such:

Team------Off------Def
SG --------3--------1
Fever------4--------3
FC-B------1--------2
Andro-----2--------4

Each team will play twice, with wins=3 pts, losses=0, draws=1

Based on these assigned values, determine the following:

What did I have for lunch yesterday?