'02 Girls FBR Rankings - 5/16/11

Sorry folks, been pretty busy and just now had the chance to get caught up on all of the '02 action from the the past 3-4 weeks of tourneys. I've scoured GotSoccer and done my best to capture all of the recent '02 tourney game results.

I still can't really add in games where '02 teams have played up in U10 tourneys with primarily '01 teams, but if there were any games in those tourneys that were between 2 '02 NTX teams, they have been included.

With all of the recent tourney results, I've been able to get a better read on relative strength of teams, and thus some of the ranking tier assignments for SoS weighting have been shuffled a little bit. This may lead to some movement in teams that doesn't 100% jive directly with the most recent results, but I still think the overall ranking picture with FBR looks pretty reasonable.

I'm sure there will be some questions on these rankings. Please go ahead and fire away, and I will do my best to give timely response and explanation.




Inter-Tier Records

bwgophers wrote:Sorry folks, been pretty busy and just now had the chance to get caught up on all of the '02 action from the the past 3-4 weeks of tourneys. I've scoured GotSoccer and done my best to capture all of the recent '02 tourney game results.

I still can't really add in games where '02 teams have played up in U10 tourneys with primarily '01 teams, but if there were any games in those tourneys that were between 2 '02 NTX teams, they have been included.

With all of the recent tourney results, I've been able to get a better read on relative strength of teams, and thus some of the ranking tier assignments for SoS weighting have been shuffled a little bit. This may lead to some movement in teams that doesn't 100% jive directly with the most recent results, but I still think the overall ranking picture with FBR looks pretty reasonable.

I'm sure there will be some questions on these rankings. Please go ahead and fire away, and I will do my best to give timely response and explanation.




Inter-Tier Records

As always, thanks Gophers. One thing, it appears Stav has split up and is no more, so they might be removed and everyone move up a notch.

SdadX2 wrote:
As always, thanks Gophers. One thing, it appears Stav has split up and is no more, so they might be removed and everyone move up a notch.

I'm always a bit hesitant to pull a team based on reports of them splitting up, unless I get real, credible, first-hand knowledge that it's true. Experience also tells me that it's not unheard of for a team to split up, only to reform after a few weeks/months because many of the families haven't found better options.

Worse case, Stav will stay in the rankings list through the Spring/Summer tourney season. If you know or believe that they are no longer, you can simply bump every team below them up one spot in your mind. Once fall league season starts up, if the team does not show up signed up for any of the recognized NTX academy leagues, I will remove them from the published rankings at that time.

They will remain in the database, and the results from their past games will still be considered in the ranking calculation until such time passes that all of their results are purged from the ranking history. Their name just won't show up when I publish the rankings on the forum.

bwgophers wrote:

SdadX2 wrote:
As always, thanks Gophers. One thing, it appears Stav has split up and is no more, so they might be removed and everyone move up a notch.

I'm always a bit hesitant to pull a team based on reports of them splitting up, unless I get real, credible, first-hand knowledge that it's true. Experience also tells me that it's not unheard of for a team to split up, only to reform after a few weeks/months because many of the families haven't found better options.

Worse case, Stav will stay in the rankings list through the Spring/Summer tourney season. If you know or believe that they are no longer, you can simply bump every team below them up one spot in your mind. Once fall league season starts up, if the team does not show up signed up for any of the recognized NTX academy leagues, I will remove them from the published rankings at that time.

They will remain in the database, and the results from their past games will still be considered in the ranking calculation until such time passes that all of their results are purged from the ranking history. Their name just won't show up when I publish the rankings on the forum.

Fair enough. Thanks again.

Where is the human ranking provided by(RoidRage/APPollster/WXYZ)

provide updated rankings!!!!!!!!!!

what happened to stav? the "splitting up"? thats too bad. that was a strong team.

ok, i saw the stav falling apart thread, which i had forgotten about and just read for myself. after seeing that, i really dont want to get that going again. pls disregard.

I'm a reader and not a poster but I have a question. I also understand we are not talking about the top 5 or anything but Polaris beat FC Dallas Renfro twice this weekend. 4-0 and 3-1. They also tied Sting O'Keefe 1-1 and beat O'Keefe 1-0 in the finals at Legends tourny. So my question is, why are the others ranked above Polaris? Thanks everyone.

spacebrain wrote:I'm a reader and not a poster but I have a question. I also understand we are not talking about the top 5 or anything but Polaris beat FC Dallas Renfro twice this weekend. 4-0 and 3-1. They also tied Sting O'Keefe 1-1 and beat O'Keefe 1-0 in the finals at Legends tourny. So my question is, why are the others ranked above Polaris? Thanks everyone.

The poll encompasses their entire body of work since January, not just this past tournament.

spacebrain wrote:I'm a reader and not a poster but I have a question. I also understand we are not talking about the top 5 or anything but Polaris beat FC Dallas Renfro twice this weekend. 4-0 and 3-1. They also tied Sting O'Keefe 1-1 and beat O'Keefe 1-0 in the finals at Legends tourny. So my question is, why are the others ranked above Polaris? Thanks everyone.

It will be adjusted I am sure. When is Polaris 02 going to play again? So everyone can take a little closer look at them!

It's called flying under the radar to answer your question.

Kat takes a loss to Waco Lady Blast who were ranked #16 and then beat Waco Lady, Glotz, Fever, and tie Rowdies in regulation and for ranking purposes only, Pks are not counted.
So at the end of the day only goes down 1.25 points.

Rowdies beat Samba, Southlake Saints, tie Kat & FCDP and takes a loss to FCDP ranked 3rd at the time and goes down 9.87 points.

So I guess it is possible if your a top ranked team and play and beat teams in lower tier and dont lose a game it is possible to drop points in the ranking system.

1v1 phenom wrote:
Kat takes a loss to Waco Lady Blast who were ranked #16 and then beat Waco Lady, Glotz, Fever, and tie Rowdies in regulation and for ranking purposes only, Pks are not counted.
So at the end of the day only goes down 1.25 points.

Rowdies beat Samba, Southlake Saints, tie Kat & FCDP and takes a loss to FCDP ranked 3rd at the time and goes down 9.87 points.

So I guess it is possible if your a top ranked team and play and beat teams in lower tier and dont lose a game it is possible to drop points in the ranking system.

Why wouldn't overtime/PK be counted if your going to count tourney games then final results need to be how it's ranked esp when it's semi finals and there has to be a clear winner/loser.

I can see a top ranked team losing to a lower rank team dropping points but a top team winning against lower rank teams losing points is odd to me.

My apologies for the delays folks. Been traveling and busy doing "real" work.

Rankings are corrected and updated in the original post at the top of the thread.

Let me see if I can address most of the questions that were raised:

1) Rowdies vs. SRSA Webb movement...

Rowdies big drop in points is not really due to their results from Primetime, but rather their results in Carey U9 the weekend before (remember, I haven't updated ranking for about 3-4 weeks). In Carey U9, Rowdies played some relatively weak teams (Sting Shephard "B"-Team, DSC Dolphins, Juve '03). Even though they spanked all of those opponents pretty badly, playing those teams hit Rowdies SoS pretty hard. Also keep in mind that since I am not able to use any of Rowdies '01 EAL results in the '02 FBR, Rowdies has a much smaller total # of games than some of the others teams like SRSA Webb. Therefore, the impact of playing these weaker opponents has a larger effect on Rowdies overall ranking calcuation.

2) PK Shootouts

I have stated multiple times that for FBR computer based rankings, I count all tourney bracket games that go to PK's as DRAWS. This is so that these games get equivalent treatment to all other tourney pool games and all other league games that are included in the ranking calculation. I know there are many arguments for/against doing it this way. I feel that this is the most consistent way to treat the games for a computer ranking and have been consistently doing it this way since I started publishing FBR rankings for the '01's. If the human pollsters want to take shootout results into account, then they certainly can, and then it will be accounted for in the "BCS" rankings.

3) Polaris v. Sting West/FCD Renfro

Sometimes it does pay off to question me on ranking behavior. When I went back and looked at this, I found that I had missed a ranking tier adjustment for DT South '03 and thus results by Sting West & FCD Renfro against DT South '03 were being overweighted. I have made the adjustment, and now Polaris, Sting West, and FCD Renfro are more closely grouped. Polaris is not clearly above either of these teams because early Polaris' early spring results were somewhat inconsistent. Polaris is currently ahead of FCD Renfro and this makes sense to me as Renfro has struggled as of late and Polaris had 2 convincing wins over Renfro this past weekend. Even though Polaris had a 1-0 W and a Draw against Sting West this past weekend, Sting West had stronger results than Polaris against common opponents in PAL league play. So it's not 100% clear based on full body of work that Polaris should be ahead of Sting West, but Sting West definitely shouldn't have been 7-8 spots higher than Polaris. That has been corrected and I think the relative ranking of these 3 teams now makes much more sense when you break down into the details.

Hope this helps out and again, will do my best to answer any subsequent questions.

Bandits McFarlane should be rated higher as they went 6-1-1 in SDL D3, beating Solar Stark and FCD Kim. Only lost once in the fall as well. He has another group that plays PSA Academy, not the same players...perhaps thats where the record info came from?

cbkenda wrote:Bandits McFarlane should be rated higher as they went 6-1-1 in SDL D3, beating Solar Stark and FCD Kim. Only lost once in the fall as well. He has another group that plays PSA Academy, not the same players...perhaps thats where the record info came from?

I have scores reported for Bandits from only 4 games this Spring (all SDL games):

2/12/11 - 1-3 Loss vs. FC Dallas West '02 Kim
2/19/11 - 1-4 Loss vs. Liverpool Hansen '02 Savage
3/5/11 - 0-2 Loss vs. Mustangs '02 Parker
4/2/11 - 8-0 Win vs. Liverpool Hansen '02 Savage

According to SDL schedule on-line, I am missing the following game results:

2/26/11 vs. Solar '02 Stark
3/19/11 vs. TFC '02 Sedeh
3/26/11 vs. Solar East '02 Sanchez
4/9/11 vs. Aces Red '02 McCallum

If you and or someone else wants to provide me with results for the games I don't have, and/or can come up with corroborated proof that the results I do have are inaccurate, please do so and I will update the rankings.

Will the forfeit between Okeefe and Polaris that will be recorded on June 2, be ignored? Or will that somehow appear to be a 3-0 loss for Okeefe once June 2 happens?

aTmAg wrote:Will the forfeit between Okeefe and Polaris that will be recorded on June 2, be ignored? Or will that somehow appear to be a 3-0 loss for Okeefe once June 2 happens?

I don't include forfeits of any kind, regardless of the reason, in the FBR rankings. FBR is a computer based ranking that is designed to give a relative strength of teams based solely on actual regulation play performance.

That is why I don't include shootouts or forfeits in the computer rankings.

Again, I leave all of that stuff (style/quality of play, was a team missing players, was a team using guests, PK shootouts, forfeits, etc...) up to the human pollsters to determine how they want to factor that into their rankings.

Combine the human polls and one or more computer based polls into a "BCS" style ranking, and you get something that looks pretty good in the end.

How do you know a given game is a forfeit? On the schedule web page, it just appears like a 3-0 loss. It doesn't say "forfeit" or anything.

aTmAg wrote:How do you know a given game is a forfeit? On the schedule web page, it just appears like a 3-0 loss. It doesn't say "forfeit" or anything.

I do my best to validate that every 3-0 game was actually played. Not to say a 3-0 forfeit never actually makes it into the rankings, but I'm made aware of it after the fact, I will remove the game from the database.

Oh ok. Well here's another one for you to mark down. Thanks for the hard work.

Thanks for all the hard work, gophers.

Where is the human Poll so we can get the BCS Rankings?

Polaris 02 won SoccerFest and beat GSSC top team very easy.

So when we watch these games.....what teams are actually playing soccer. We watched some this weekend and yuck...bunching up.....and no passing... but did see some strong athletic kids bulldoze their way to the lead, but not pretty soccer at all. Maybe the Solar club just lets anyone coach. Some of the coaches are just glorified rec coaches with some good athletes. Please DOC of Solar help these rec coaches or take over their teams please!!! It is bringing the Solar name down.