'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 04-25-13

Does this mean the other 12 page thread has to die?

soccerdad1969 wrote:Does this mean the other 12 page thread has to die?

It won't take long to replicate it.

Ready? 1, 2, 3... RASE

Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys...

Do the results in tournaments that the teams play up in age level count in the rankings?

It seems to be that if a team is ranked within 10 spots above or 10 spots below your team, it should be a pretty decent game, and pretty evenly matched. Any more either direction and it would be mis-match one way or the other.

Of course, there are times when a team dominates on the field, but can't seem to get it in the net, or vice versa. Other times, a team should win on paper, but an individual mis-match here and there causes an unexpected result. BUT, I think it was Stuart Scott who said (back when he was good at his job)..."they don't play games on paper, they play them on grass".

10sDad wrote:It seems to be that if a team is ranked within 10 spots above or 10 spots below your team, it should be a pretty decent game, and pretty evenly matched. Any more either direction and it would be mis-match one way or the other.

I've posted several times in the past that generally, teams within 5 spots of one another will have very competitive games (decided by < 2 goal differential), and it's not a surprise for either team to win the game. Teams within 5-10 spots of one another will generally have competitive games (decided by < 2 goal differential), but the higher ranked team will win the game a large majority (>70%) of the time. In games between teams ranked more than 10 spots apart, the lower ranked team will rarely (<20%) manage even a draw, and in many cases, the game will be decided by 3 or more goals.

Obviously this isn't always the case, and you can get groups >10 teams that are pretty close in strength, and you can also have large gaps between teams ranked only a couple of spots from one another. However, the above are good "general" guidelines for predicting the competitiveness of a game. This is one of the main reasons why I create and post these rankings in the first place.

Looking at the inter-tier records is striking. Even with one tier of separation, the higher tier record is dominant. Guess I've never noticed that before.

BW, where does Tier 2 start and stop?

canaryman wrote:BW, where does Tier 2 start and stop?

The ranking tiers do not line up exactly with the rankings. However, the general breakdown of the tiers for the '04's is currently:

Tier 1: RASE and DT South (only unbeaten, un-tied teams)
Tier 2: Remainder of top 10, except TSNR
Tier 3: TSNR + majority of teams between 11-30
Tier 4: Majority of teams between 31-50
Tier 5: Majority of teams between 51-85
Tier 6: Majority of teams between 86-95

bwgophers wrote:

canaryman wrote:BW, where does Tier 2 start and stop?

The ranking tiers do not line up exactly with the rankings. However, the general breakdown of the tiers for the '04's is currently:

Tier 1: RASE and DT South (only unbeaten, un-tied teams)
Tier 2: Remainder of top 10, except TSNR
Tier 3: TSNR + majority of teams between 11-30
Tier 4: Majority of teams between 31-50
Tier 5: Majority of teams between 51-85
Tier 6: Majority of teams between 86-95

Out of curiosity, please explain your specific logic on TSNR?

I was wandering the same thing.

Same here. To specifically call out a single team w/o sound reasoning?

I don't think the system is singling anyone out, I just can't wrap my head around it.

I know BW has the logic behind it, I was just curious as to what it was. I'm thinking it may have something to do with doing 9v9 vs 11v11 or perhaps not having had enough games vs Tier 1 teams yet or not enough time spent in Tier 2 yet.

I don't see how you guys are not Tier 2 yet when Piper is (assuming they are). As you say, must be a game here or there.

Did you play DTS?

soccerdad1969 wrote:I don't see how you guys are not Tier 2 yet when Piper is (assuming they are). As you say, must be a game here or there.

If I'm not mistaken, Piper played TGPL in the fall which may be part of the equation. And no, we didn't get to play DTS, which I've made reference to in other posts. Not heard a reason yet as to why SDL didn't schedule it. We both played everyone else, but not each other.

We missed out on Rase05

KnKsDad wrote:

soccerdad1969 wrote:I don't see how you guys are not Tier 2 yet when Piper is (assuming they are). As you say, must be a game here or there.

If I'm not mistaken, Piper played TGPL in the fall which may be part of the equation. And no, we didn't get to play DTS, which I've made reference to in other posts. Not heard a reason yet as to why SDL didn't schedule it. We both played everyone else, but not each other.

Lack of DTS may be it. It may affect SOS even though Piper played them last weekend and got beat 7-1 (they both beat us BTW).